Fangraphs 2022 Projected Standings 1399 points 617 comments 78 45 comments Take_Some_Soma SD '84 1 yr. ago Fool me once, shame on you. Bryce Harpers return from elbow surgery is, of course, one of the real X factors thats hard to fully consider here. To arrive at the playoff odds, we then simulate the upcoming season 20,000 times, taking strength of schedule into account. If you start by looking at the offensive comps in the chart below, you can see how quickly things go downhill in the batters projections. Justin Verlander is back and throwing 95 mph, but hes also 39 years old, coming off Tommy John surgery, and has tossed just six innings since 2019. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien is a great place to begin, though. I expect a busy offseason for the Mariners, with a definite focus on second base and corner outfield, and the Rangers have already been able to retain their best free agent-to-be, Martin Perez, for the 2023 season. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted The As might have had one more competitive season with their core that won nearly 60% of their games from 2018 to 20. What I do see them doing in FA is what Francona loves: platoons at 1B, Dh, and CF. Even being average for 2 months wouldve kept us in it. Below are the projections for the Atlanta Braves. But without their ace, their ceiling is just a bit lower. Starts at 6:30 pm. Like the Rangers, the Cubs are hoping that they can skip a few steps in The Process by adding talent through free agency. 2023 projected standings for major league baseball teams. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has OAA/RAA from Statcast available on our leaderboards, Ive chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. 34 on our Top 100) and Mickey Moniak have played their way onto the Opening Day roster and should provide some youthful excitement for a team filled with veterans. The exercise continues this offseason. The Phillies were one of the most active teams during the offseason, signing Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to slug in the middle of their lineup and bringing in a bunch of late-inning options in the bullpen. The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. Their entire system is proprietary to their site but as they describe it, its a system that takes a players past performance and tries to project the most likely outcome for the following season. Of course, thats what every projection model attempts to do but all in different ways. But it would be a lot easier to do if they could bring back Freddie Freeman. Fangraphs: 2022 Top 100 Prospects. Renfroe is actually helpful for an organization that has proven bad at surrounding its stars with secondary talent, but theres a lot to do if the Angels are going to even maintain this place in the standings. The Astros are still the favorite to win the AL West, but theyre also looking just a little more vulnerable than they have in the recent past. Below are the projections for the New York Mets. Projected amid the pack this offseason, the Twins have likely shoved their way out of the scrum by adding Correa and Sonny Gray. This 85-win projection is based on more solid ground. ATC further sets itself apart from other statistical aggregation methods. by Mike Podhorzer November 16, 2022 Let's finish up my Pod Projection reviews by looking at former top starting pitching prospect, Josiah Gray. As terrific as he was in 2021, with a .271/.341/.540 line and 5.0 WAR, ZiPS isnt projecting a dropoff, thanks both to regression and because it thinks he was somewhat unlucky in BABIP the last two years relative to his hit data. That level of divisional chaos is sure to delight Jay Jaffe, my colleague and GM of Team Entropy or at least it would if MLB hadnt made the decision to eliminate tiebreaker games in 2022, going instead with NFL-style tiebreak procedures only. So its not surprising that when you total it up, two of the teams that have made the most in-season additions over the last 17 seasons, the Astros and Yankees, are the two teams that have underperformed most often in ZiPS. Seagers health record hasnt been perfect, but it hasnt been Eric Davis-like, either, and he still has a couple of seasons left of his 20s. And thats where all these models are built. Below are the projections for the Oakland Athletics. Below are the previous parts. But despite being absolutely premature and littered with horrible misses, projected standings at this point are actually quite useful, and useful is the best description any kind of predictive model can strive for. The least the team could do is let the Orioles faithful have some fun at the ballpark. After a prolonged offseason rife with drama and surprises, Opening Day is finally upon us. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals. ZiPS Projected Standings American League East, ZiPS Projected Standings American League Central, ZiPS Projected Standings American League West. by Retrosheet. The talent was evident, but ownership was clearly reluctant to spend any additional money or prospect capital to supplement the core again. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors And the As, well, they didnt have anyone good enough to lose, which is something! The problem is, hitting home runs has never really been the Rockies problem. Plenty of their magic from last season seems sustainable even if the projection systems cant recognize it, but it still feels like everything needs to go right, again, if theyre going to be a contender in 2022. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. Ariel Cohen is a fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries (SOA). I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as an initial starting point. While most other accumulation models apply equal weight to their underlying sources, ATC assigns weights based on historical performance. Read the rest of this entry . The Guardians have a brand-new identity and just locked up the face of their franchise, Jos Ramrez, to a huge extension. Luckily, New York brought in plenty of help during the offseason, spending at record levels to sign Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Eduardo Escobar and also trading for Chris Bassitt. Those three should give a significant boost to an offense thats floundered since the core of the 2015 championship team was broken up. Some may think. Just get into the playoffs so I can wear my playoff poncho and swag chain!!! Skiing in the Rockies sucks this time of year, Fangraphs' Newly Updated International Prospect Rankings, FanGraphs projects struggles for Giants in 2022 season. Of the 10 bases-empty bunts that he attempted in 2022, eight went towards first base. Every spot of the lineup is projected to be worth at least two WAR, even the shortstop crater that Jeremy Pea will seek to fill. The Bills are a 4.5-point favorite in the game. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. The Royals and Tigers have a lot of fairly serious problems, so I doubt anyone is shocked to see them at the bottom here, though ZiPS does think KC can cobble together a halfway decent offense if they can resist doing the odd things they seemingly like to do (Ryan OHearn has the 38th-best projected WAR for a position player in their organization). This is actually much less complex than it sounds. 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings AL Central, 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings NL Central. Still, if they make the playoffs in 2022 as close a certainty youll get in baseball these days theyll join the 19912005 Atlanta Braves and the 19952007 New York Yankees as the only teams in history to make the playoffs for an entire decade. At least its steamed crab season! They wildly outperformed their projections a year ago and then had a ton of turnover on their roster during the offseason. yet another projection system that seems to be higher on the phillies than the commentariat. bigbicepturner Wil Myers 1 yr. ago Fool me twice Can't fool me again edit: damnit, I screwed it up. Also gotta remember that the rest of the Central teams (especially Twins) have payroll space. As for Baseball Prospectus, theyr projection model is called PECOTA which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, as Im sure you knew. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a. Actually, the reason theyve spent no money is that Dolan is cheap and knows hell make money win or lose. Depth Charts: FanGraphs Depth Chart projections are a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections with playing time allocated by our staff. Their presence should give fans in Arizona something to be optimistic about, even as the current roster flounders. Even though the projections dont see it, is there any doubt that their pitching staff will be one of the best run prevention units in all of baseball? All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Next up: The start of the team-by-team projections, beginning with the Boston Red Sox. Of note is that higher-percentile projections already have more playing time than lower-percentile projections before this step. I remain on the record that I think the Tigers are better than ZiPS thinks, and its nice to see that Detroit isnt going to play games with Spencer Torkelsons playing time. They re-signed postseason hero Eddie Rosario and added Kenley Jansen and Collin McHugh to bolster an already deep bullpen. So there you go, if projection models are your thing, thats all good news from two of the biggest sites in the baseball community. They had a fantastic offseason, adding Kevin Gausman to replace reigning AL CY Young winner Robbie Ray as well as adding to the back of their rotation with Yusei Kikuchi. The Diamondbacks lost 110 games in a year where anything that could go wrong did. by Retrosheet. Their starting rotation remains shockingly thin, especially if Brash or Kirby stumble upon their introduction to the majors. The five teams in this tier have a really wide range of possible outcomes based on a variety of factors. The exercise continues this offseason. Duke Blue Devils 13-5 (24) Theyll get Ronald Acua Jr. and Mike Soroka back from their respective injuries sometime during the season; Marcell Ozuna will return to the roster as well. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. These two NL Central rivals feel like theyre heading in different directions despite being projected for the same win totals in 2022. They rode an excellent bullpen and some clutch hitting to a 90-win season but fell short of breaking their historic playoff drought by just two games. Here's how PECOTA sees the 2022 season: This is just the NL East of course, you can view the full projections here. It arrived stressfully, chaotically, and slightly late, but the 2022 season is here. Every Wednesday until November 30th: Daimon Latino Nights. I still wish Chicago had outbid the Rays for Nelson Cruzs services. Signing Kris Bryant to launch dingers into the stratosphere in Denvers thin air is undeniably cool and fun. With three World Series appearances over the last five seasons and just one championship to show for it, you could view their recent dynasty as having some unfinished business despite its excellence. A full year of Byron Buxton would be a huge boost, and the Twins have got plenty of supplemental talent in the lineup in Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, and Miguel San. They swung a major trade with the Twins to get Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa and also re-signed Anthony Rizzo. The Tigers were one of the better teams in the American League during the second half of 2021 as they started to break out of their rebuilding cycle. : 0767266154 or via messenger Facebook page. Well start with the AL East: You shouldnt be surprised to see the Yankees crash back to earth here, based on the simple fact that the dude worth 11.4 WAR for them this past season hint, its not Tim Locastro is currently unsigned. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski. Not when they need a 2B, at least one OF, maybe a C and P. Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch, and Kris Bubic, who collectively comprise the Royals highly regarded first-round haul from 2018, have all made their major league debuts to varying degrees of disappointment. We had four good months last year. 60% bachata, 20% kizomba, and 20% salsa. In the. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The Rangers have stopped digging the hole, but 2022 is probably too soon for them to climb out. Yes, the " ZiPs" projections developed by FanGraphs' Dan Szymborski still see the Tigers as a sub-.500 team. But this is also the Mets were talking about; anything that could go wrong probably will. That Bobby Witt Jr. projects well is not a surprise, but Nick Pratto, MJ Melendez, and Vinnie Pasquantino all crushed the feckless assortment of minor league pitchers they faced, and you have to feel much better about the long-term outlook of all three in the majors. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. I dont see them trading for Murphy. There have been very few things to celebrate in Baltimore recently Trey Mancinis comeback and Cedric Mullins 3030 season being the most recent but theyll finally start to see the foundations of their rebuild make it to the majors this year. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. For the second straight year, weve also run the same process using the Average Total Cost (ATC) Projections as our base. Stored within ZiPS are the first through 99th percentile projections for each player. The As have made a lot of improbable runs, but if they cause pain to the Astros and Mariners this year, it might be their most impressive surprise yet. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Chapman seems to come up in trade talks reasonably regularly, but Im not sure the As actually move him this year unless the playoff race is an uphill battle in July. As it is, theyll likely have to get excited in late May when Cruz has all of a sudden taken a big step forward defensively. The full win total disparity between the two projection engines can be seen below: Both projections have the Dodgers, Braves and Blue Jays as the teams with the highest probability of reaching the postseason; ATC gives a slight edge to the Braves over the Blue Jays. Over the last decade, ZiPS has averaged 19.9 correct teams when looking at Vegas preseason over/under lines. This year? Semien is a few years older, but after rightfully being a big part of the American League MVP race in two of the last three seasons, he starts off on a pretty high pedestal. Last year, I introduced these power rankings as a way to think about all 30 teams in baseball and stack them up against each other outside the rigid structures of leagues or divisions. The Marlins find themselves on even footing with the teams in this tier behind the strength of their exciting pitching staff. Which is why I doubt the $10M number. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Read the rest of this entry . Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. The projections havent figured out how to handle the Rays brand of excessively deep roster construction. Read the rest of this entry . Read the rest of this entry . Eliminating the gap is a fools errand. In five years, the Rockies will be paying Lopez $10 million a year to put up 1.1 WAR and block the latest iteration of Brendan Rodgers or Ryan McMahon. You could make an argument for any of these four teams to sit atop these rankings, though, and thats why theyre presented in tiers rather than a straight numerical order. Can the Braves win the World Series again? Maybe Zack Greinke being back in Royal blue for 2022 will help them find another level. "@HaloDom47 Whatever it projected was thrown out of whack because of Rendons bitch ass and a lot of the injuries that happened to other players most notably Trout. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. As you can see, FanGraphs is pretty high on the 2022 team. Gone are Gausman, Cueto, Buster Posey, Kris Bryant, Donovan Solano and a host of other role players. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Theyll have their work cut out for them in a stacked AL East, especially after missing out on the playoffs by one game last year, but their combination of young star power and big-name offseason acquisitions should get them over the hump and back into the postseason in 2022. Which is what the Chisox are supposed to do on $10M. They need two corner outfielders and a second baseman. But for whatever reason, PECOTA has finally started to like the Braves. They also forecast a drop from 5.9 fWAR in 2022 to 3.3 in 2023. Im always tinkering with methodology, but most of the low-hanging fruit of predicting how teams do have already been harvested. The lesson is that the competitive window can close really fast, dont take anything for granted, and dont invite back your 76 year old buddy to manage the team because you feel like you owe him a favor. Despite all that young talent, it was rather confusing to see them refuse to even try to improve their roster from the outside. Would half their analysis department possess Ph.D.s in physics? The methodology Im using here isnt identical to the one we use in our Projected Standings, so there will naturally be some important differences in the results. The ATC projections are more bullish on the White Sox's chances in 2022, putting the odds of Chicago making the playoffs at 82% versus the FanGraphs Depth Charts (FGDC) figure of 72%. First, we take the three most important components of a team their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-) and weight and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. Its a big bet on their player development group, which could pay dividends in a couple of years. Theyll get him and James Paxton back from injury sometime this summer, but until then, theyll have to hope that Michael Wacha and Rich Hill can hold up the back end of the rotation. If the goal was to sign him to an extension no matter what, then they should have signed some players to play with him this year and next, while his salary is still relatively low. The Astros have a solid argument to be considered among the teams a tier above, especially after their third World Series appearance in the last five seasons. They did manage to re-sign Brandon Belt, Anthony DeSclafani, and Alex Wood while also adding Carlos Rodn, Alex Cobb, and Matthew Boyd to their rotation and Joc Pederson to their lineup. As usual, dont hesitate to tweet us or comment below with fantasy questions. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Ariel is the 2020 Tout Wars Head to Head League Champion. Uras projects to essentially repeat his 2021 season. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted You can show your support to Fangraphs by becoming a member! Braves Hall of Fame profile: Bronson Arroyo. 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